Real estate

finwire housing balance: demographic pressure, completions forecast, rent forecast

Three finwire indices computed from public data already in finwire.pl: finwire_housing_pressure (new residents per 1 dwelling completed in the same year: net internal and foreign migration for permanent residence from GUS plus growth of foreigners insured in ZUS, for Poland, 16 provinces and 17 cities, yearly since 2012), finwire_housing_pipeline (forecast of dwellings completed in 4 quarters up to 2 years ahead from GUNB building permits, with the permit-to-completion lag chosen by cross-correlation, an 80% interval and backtest accuracy per horizon) and finwire_rent_forecast (6-month change of asking rent per m2 in cities from a panel model; published only after the backtest passes the accuracy threshold). Forecasts below the threshold are withheld (published=false).