{"data":{"indexId":"finwire_next_year_limits","indexName":"Limity na przyszły rok finwire","methodVersion":1,"asOf":"2026-11-06","targetYear":2027,"updatedAt":"2026-11-06T19:35:00.178Z","stages":["projekcja","projekt","obwieszczenie","obowiazuje"],"items":[{"key":"pension_indexation","targetYear":2027,"value":103.69,"low80":103.33,"high80":104.05,"stage":"projekcja","stageLabel":"Szacunek z wzoru","projection":103.69,"official":null,"equation":"103,08% × (100% + 20% × 2,95%) = 103,69%","inputs":[{"label":"Inflacja średnioroczna ogółem","value":"3,08%","note":"10 z 12 miesięcy 2026 r., reszta z ostatniego odczytu, GUS"},{"label":"Inflacja gospodarstw emerytów i rencistów","value":"3,04%","note":"9 z 12 miesięcy 2026 r., GUS"},{"label":"Nominalny wzrost przeciętnego wynagrodzenia","value":"6,13%","note":"2 kw. 2026, gospodarka narodowa, GUS"},{"label":"Realny wzrost wynagrodzenia","value":"2,95%","note":"płace nominalne podzielone przez inflację ogółem"},{"label":"Udział realnego wzrostu płac","value":"20%","note":"Rozporządzenie Rady Ministrów z 28 lipca 2026 r. (Dz.U. 2026 poz. 1018)"}],"note":"Wzór daje minimum: rząd może podnieść udział realnego wzrostu płac ponad 20%.","effectiveFrom":"2027-03-01"},{"key":"min_pension","targetYear":2027,"value":2051.5,"low80":2044.32,"high80":2058.68,"stage":"projekcja","stageLabel":"Szacunek z wzoru","projection":2051.5,"official":null,"equation":"1978,49 zł × 103,69% = 2051,50 zł","inputs":[{"label":"Najniższa emerytura przed waloryzacją","value":"1978,49 zł","note":"Komunikat Prezesa ZUS z 17 lutego 2026 r. (kwota najniższej emerytury od 1 marca 2026 r.)"}],"note":null,"effectiveFrom":"2027-03-01"},{"key":"min_wage","targetYear":2027,"value":4950,"low80":4950,"high80":4950,"stage":"obwieszczenie","stageLabel":"Ogłoszone","projection":4974.2,"official":{"value":4950,"act":"rozporządzenie Rady Ministrów (Dz.U. 2026 poz. 1213)","url":"https://api.sejm.gov.pl/eli/acts/DU/2026/1213/text.pdf"},"equation":"4806,00 zł × 103,5% = 4974,20 zł","inputs":[{"label":"Przeciętna płaca minimalna w 2026 r.","value":"4806,00 zł","note":"Dz.U. 2025 poz. 1242"},{"label":"Inflacja jako przybliżenie prognozy rządu","value":"3,5%","note":"Finwire Nowcast na listopad 2026"},{"label":"Połowa przeciętnego wynagrodzenia z I kw. 2026 r.","value":"4781,44 zł","note":"GUS, płaca minimalna powyżej tej granicy"}],"note":null,"effectiveFrom":"2027-01-01"},{"key":"min_hourly","targetYear":2027,"value":32.3,"low80":32.3,"high80":32.3,"stage":"obwieszczenie","stageLabel":"Ogłoszone","projection":32.5,"official":{"value":32.3,"act":"rozporządzenie Rady Ministrów (Dz.U. 2026 poz. 1213)","url":"https://api.sejm.gov.pl/eli/acts/DU/2026/1213/text.pdf"},"equation":"31,40 zł × 4974,20 zł / 4806,00 zł = 32,50 zł","inputs":[{"label":"Minimalna stawka godzinowa w 2026 r.","value":"31,40 zł","note":"Dz.U. 2025 poz. 1242"}],"note":"Stawka rośnie w tym samym tempie co płaca minimalna (art. 2 ust. 3a).","effectiveFrom":"2027-01-01"},{"key":"zus_preferential_base","targetYear":2027,"value":1485,"low80":1485,"high80":1485,"stage":"obwieszczenie","stageLabel":"Ogłoszone","projection":1492.26,"official":{"value":1485,"act":"30% płacy minimalnej z rozporządzenia Rady Ministrów (Dz.U. 2026 poz. 1213)","url":"https://api.sejm.gov.pl/eli/acts/DU/2026/1213/text.pdf"},"equation":"30% × 4950,00 zł = 1485,00 zł","inputs":[],"note":null,"effectiveFrom":"2027-01-01"},{"key":"prognosed_wage","targetYear":2027,"value":10033,"low80":10033,"high80":10033,"stage":"obwieszczenie","stageLabel":"Ogłoszone","projection":10082.49,"official":{"value":10033,"act":"obwieszczenie MRPiPS z 3 listopada 2026 r. (M.P. 2026 poz. 1098)","url":"https://api.sejm.gov.pl/eli/acts/MP/2026/1098/text.pdf"},"equation":"9420,00 zł × 107,03% = 10 082,49 zł","inputs":[{"label":"Prognozowane wynagrodzenie na 2026 r.","value":"9420,00 zł","note":"obwieszczenie MRPiPS z 19 listopada 2025 r. (M.P. 2025 poz. 1206)"},{"label":"Tempo wzrostu płac","value":"7,03%","note":"III kw. 2025 - II kw. 2026 r/r, gospodarka narodowa, GUS"}],"note":"Przed obwieszczeniem liczba pochodzi z ustawy budżetowej albo jej projektu; szacujemy ją z zeszłorocznej liczby i bieżącego tempa płac.","effectiveFrom":"2027-01-01"},{"key":"ike","targetYear":2027,"value":30099,"low80":30099,"high80":30099,"stage":"obwieszczenie","stageLabel":"Ogłoszone","projection":30099,"official":{"value":30099,"act":"obwieszczenie MRPiPS z 30 października 2026 r. (M.P. 2026 poz. 1081)","url":"https://api.sejm.gov.pl/eli/acts/MP/2026/1081/text.pdf"},"equation":"3 × 10 033,00 zł = 30 099,00 zł","inputs":[],"note":"Kwota nie może spaść poniżej zeszłorocznej (art. 13 ust. 1a).","effectiveFrom":"2027-01-01"},{"key":"ikze","targetYear":2027,"value":12039.6,"low80":12039.6,"high80":12039.6,"stage":"obwieszczenie","stageLabel":"Ogłoszone","projection":12039.6,"official":{"value":12039.6,"act":"obwieszczenie MRPiPS z 27 października 2026 r. (M.P. 2026 poz. 1062)","url":"https://api.sejm.gov.pl/eli/acts/MP/2026/1062/text.pdf"},"equation":"1,2 × 10 033,00 zł = 12 039,60 zł","inputs":[],"note":"Kwota nie może spaść poniżej zeszłorocznej (art. 13a ust. 2).","effectiveFrom":"2027-01-01"},{"key":"ikze_self_employed","targetYear":2027,"value":18059.4,"low80":18059.4,"high80":18059.4,"stage":"obwieszczenie","stageLabel":"Ogłoszone","projection":18059.4,"official":{"value":18059.4,"act":"obwieszczenie MRPiPS z 27 października 2026 r. (M.P. 2026 poz. 1062)","url":"https://api.sejm.gov.pl/eli/acts/MP/2026/1062/text.pdf"},"equation":"1,8 × 10 033,00 zł = 18 059,40 zł","inputs":[],"note":"Dla osób prowadzących działalność gospodarczą.","effectiveFrom":"2027-01-01"},{"key":"pension_base_cap_30x","targetYear":2027,"value":300990,"low80":300990,"high80":300990,"stage":"obwieszczenie","stageLabel":"Ogłoszone","projection":300990,"official":{"value":300990,"act":"obwieszczenie MRPiPS z 3 listopada 2026 r. (M.P. 2026 poz. 1098)","url":"https://api.sejm.gov.pl/eli/acts/MP/2026/1098/text.pdf"},"equation":"30 × 10 033,00 zł = 300 990,00 zł","inputs":[],"note":"Powyżej tej kwoty rocznego przychodu pracodawca nie pobiera składek emerytalnych i rentowych.","effectiveFrom":"2027-01-01"},{"key":"zus_full_base","targetYear":2027,"value":6019.8,"low80":6019.8,"high80":6019.8,"stage":"obwieszczenie","stageLabel":"Ogłoszone","projection":6019.8,"official":{"value":6019.8,"act":"obwieszczenie MRPiPS z 3 listopada 2026 r. (M.P. 2026 poz. 1098)","url":"https://api.sejm.gov.pl/eli/acts/MP/2026/1098/text.pdf"},"equation":"60% × 10 033,00 zł = 6019,80 zł","inputs":[],"note":null,"effectiveFrom":"2027-01-01"},{"key":"ryczalt_limit","targetYear":2027,"value":8754000,"low80":8754000,"high80":8754000,"stage":"obwieszczenie","stageLabel":"Kurs NBP znany","projection":8754000,"official":{"value":8754000,"act":"2 000 000 euro po kursie NBP (tabela A z 1 października 2026 r.)","url":"https://api.sejm.gov.pl/eli/acts/DU/2025/843/text.pdf"},"equation":"2 000 000 € × 4,3770 zł = 8 754 000 zł","inputs":[{"label":"Kurs EUR z 1 października 2026 r.","value":"4,3770 zł","note":"NBP, tabela A, pierwszy dzień roboczy października"}],"note":"Projekt ustawy (druk sejmowy nr 3147) obniża limit do 250 000 euro, czyli 1 094 250 zł; po wejściu w życie liczba zmieni się sama.","effectiveFrom":"2027-01-01"},{"key":"cit_small_taxpayer","targetYear":2027,"value":8754000,"low80":8754000,"high80":8754000,"stage":"obwieszczenie","stageLabel":"Kurs NBP znany","projection":8754000,"official":{"value":8754000,"act":"2 000 000 euro po kursie NBP z 1 października 2026 r., zaokrąglone do 1000 zł","url":"https://api.sejm.gov.pl/eli/acts/DU/2026/554/text.pdf"},"equation":"2 000 000 € × 4,3770 zł ≈ 8 754 000 zł","inputs":[{"label":"Kurs EUR z 1 października 2026 r.","value":"4,3770 zł","note":"NBP, tabela A, pierwszy dzień roboczy października"}],"note":"Status małego podatnika daje stawkę CIT 9%; liczy się przychód ze sprzedaży z VAT z roku poprzedniego.","effectiveFrom":"2027-01-01"}],"backtest":{"summary":[{"key":"min_wage","horizon":"czerwiec","n":4,"mae":113.70000000000005,"bias":78.49999999999977,"coverage80":0.75,"years":[2024,2025,2026,2027]},{"key":"pension_indexation","horizon":"czerwiec","n":4,"mae":1.5849999999999973,"bias":-0.3550000000000004,"coverage80":0.5,"years":[2023,2024,2025,2026]},{"key":"pension_indexation","horizon":"wrzesień","n":4,"mae":0.6099999999999994,"bias":-0.2749999999999986,"coverage80":0.5,"years":[2023,2024,2025,2026]},{"key":"pension_indexation","horizon":"grudzień","n":4,"mae":0.23499999999999588,"bias":-0.11000000000000298,"coverage80":0.75,"years":[2023,2024,2025,2026]},{"key":"pension_indexation","horizon":"pełne dane","n":4,"mae":0.17249999999999943,"bias":0.022500000000000853,"coverage80":0.75,"years":[2023,2024,2025,2026]},{"key":"prognosed_wage","horizon":"czerwiec","n":3,"mae":220.73000000000016,"bias":-220.73000000000016,"coverage80":0,"years":[2025,2026,2027]},{"key":"prognosed_wage","horizon":"wrzesień","n":2,"mae":132.09000000000015,"bias":-132.09000000000015,"coverage80":1,"years":[2026,2027]},{"key":"ryczalt_limit","horizon":"czerwiec","n":3,"mae":83866.66666666667,"bias":46000,"coverage80":1,"years":[2025,2026,2027]}],"rows":[{"key":"min_wage","targetYear":2024,"horizon":"czerwiec","asOf":"2023-06-10","projected":4150.1,"low80":3990.83,"high80":4309.37,"actual":4242},{"key":"min_wage","targetYear":2025,"horizon":"czerwiec","asOf":"2024-06-10","projected":4373.5,"low80":4124.9,"high80":4622.1,"actual":4666},{"key":"min_wage","targetYear":2026,"horizon":"czerwiec","asOf":"2025-06-10","projected":4866.6,"low80":4626.9,"high80":5106.3,"actual":4806},{"key":"min_wage","targetYear":2027,"horizon":"czerwiec","asOf":"2026-06-10","projected":4959.8,"low80":4775.94,"high80":5143.66,"actual":4950},{"key":"pension_indexation","targetYear":2023,"horizon":"czerwiec","asOf":"2022-06-30","projected":112.91,"low80":111.97,"high80":113.85,"actual":114.8},{"key":"pension_indexation","targetYear":2023,"horizon":"wrzesień","asOf":"2022-09-30","projected":114.13,"low80":113.65,"high80":114.61,"actual":114.8},{"key":"pension_indexation","targetYear":2023,"horizon":"grudzień","asOf":"2022-12-31","projected":114.62,"low80":114.43,"high80":114.81,"actual":114.8},{"key":"pension_indexation","targetYear":2023,"horizon":"pełne dane","asOf":"2023-02-20","projected":114.49,"low80":114.31,"high80":114.67,"actual":114.8},{"key":"pension_indexation","targetYear":2024,"horizon":"czerwiec","asOf":"2023-06-30","projected":114.96,"low80":113.64,"high80":116.28,"actual":112.12},{"key":"pension_indexation","targetYear":2024,"horizon":"wrzesień","asOf":"2023-09-30","projected":113.54,"low80":112.82,"high80":114.26,"actual":112.12},{"key":"pension_indexation","targetYear":2024,"horizon":"grudzień","asOf":"2023-12-31","projected":112.56,"low80":112.19,"high80":112.93,"actual":112.12},{"key":"pension_indexation","targetYear":2024,"horizon":"pełne dane","asOf":"2024-02-20","projected":112.22,"low80":111.85,"high80":112.59,"actual":112.12},{"key":"pension_indexation","targetYear":2025,"horizon":"czerwiec","asOf":"2024-06-30","projected":104.93,"low80":103.33,"high80":106.53,"actual":105.5},{"key":"pension_indexation","targetYear":2025,"horizon":"wrzesień","asOf":"2024-09-30","projected":105.69,"low80":104.9,"high80":106.48,"actual":105.5},{"key":"pension_indexation","targetYear":2025,"horizon":"grudzień","asOf":"2024-12-31","projected":105.75,"low80":105.44,"high80":106.06,"actual":105.5},{"key":"pension_indexation","targetYear":2025,"horizon":"pełne dane","asOf":"2025-02-20","projected":105.7,"low80":105.45,"high80":105.95,"actual":105.5},{"key":"pension_indexation","targetYear":2026,"horizon":"czerwiec","asOf":"2025-06-30","projected":106.34,"low80":104.8,"high80":107.88,"actual":105.3},{"key":"pension_indexation","targetYear":2026,"horizon":"wrzesień","asOf":"2025-09-30","projected":105.46,"low80":104.72,"high80":106.2,"actual":105.3},{"key":"pension_indexation","targetYear":2026,"horizon":"grudzień","asOf":"2025-12-31","projected":105.23,"low80":104.91,"high80":105.55,"actual":105.3},{"key":"pension_indexation","targetYear":2026,"horizon":"pełne dane","asOf":"2026-02-20","projected":105.22,"low80":104.94,"high80":105.5,"actual":105.3},{"key":"prognosed_wage","targetYear":2025,"horizon":"czerwiec","asOf":"2024-06-30","projected":8867.02,"low80":8734.18,"high80":8999.86,"actual":8673},{"key":"prognosed_wage","targetYear":2026,"horizon":"czerwiec","asOf":"2025-06-30","projected":9761.48,"low80":9538.73,"high80":9984.23,"actual":9420},{"key":"prognosed_wage","targetYear":2026,"horizon":"wrzesień","asOf":"2025-09-30","projected":9634.69,"low80":9398.72,"high80":9870.66,"actual":9420},{"key":"prognosed_wage","targetYear":2027,"horizon":"czerwiec","asOf":"2026-06-30","projected":10159.69,"low80":10042.01,"high80":10277.37,"actual":10033},{"key":"prognosed_wage","targetYear":2027,"horizon":"wrzesień","asOf":"2026-09-30","projected":10082.49,"low80":9931.52,"high80":10233.46,"actual":10033},{"key":"ryczalt_limit","targetYear":2025,"horizon":"czerwiec","asOf":"2024-06-30","projected":8626000,"low80":8297857,"high80":8954143,"actual":8569200},{"key":"ryczalt_limit","targetYear":2026,"horizon":"czerwiec","asOf":"2025-06-30","projected":8483800,"low80":8217510,"high80":8750090,"actual":8517200},{"key":"ryczalt_limit","targetYear":2027,"horizon":"czerwiec","asOf":"2026-06-30","projected":8592600,"low80":8424686,"high80":8760514,"actual":8754000}]}},"meta":{"datasetId":"next-year-limits","source":"finwire.pl calculation from GUS (CPI, CPI of pensioner households, average wage, GDP), NBP (EUR rate) and acts in the Journal of Laws and Monitor Polski","sourceUrl":"https://finwire.pl/indeksy/limity-na-przyszly-rok#metoda","license":"CC BY 4.0 (finwire.pl calculation); public GUS and NBP data - attribution required.","asOf":"2026-11-06","fetchedAt":"2026-11-07T01:47:19.763Z","citation":"Source: finwire.pl (finwire.pl calculation from GUS (CPI, CPI of pensioner households, average wage, GDP), NBP (EUR rate) and acts in the Journal of Laws and Monitor Polski), https://public-api.finwire.pl/datasets/next-year-limits","docsUrl":"https://public-api.finwire.pl/datasets/next-year-limits"}}